Research

Every model version that has been tested. Parameters are frozen per version; any change makes a new version. Only production models feed the public forecasts.

SeparationModels are fitted on a training period, chosen on a separate validation period, confirmed on a holdout, and only then measured prospectively. See Performance for live results.

Super League

Primary competition. M0 runs with its own Super League rating state. NRL validation does not carry over.

M0M0 Team Strength (Super League)Active · experimental

M0 specification applied to Super League without competition-specific validation.

Frozen NRL M0 parameters transported unchanged to Super League. Not yet validated on Super League data; NRL validation does not transfer. Independent Super League rating state.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: SL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: research
Public forecast: Yes

Super League transport of M0 v1.0.0. Parameters identical to NRL M0; own rating state built only from Super League results.

Frozen parameters

{
  "K": 60,
  "S": 250,
  "homeAdvantage": 80,
  "offseasonRetention": 0.5
}

M5Team Strength + Depth Stress (Super League)Unavailable · data

Not deployed for Super League.

No verified historical pre-match Super League team-selection dataset exists, so M5 cannot be fitted or validated for Super League. M5 is never manufactured for this competition.

Version: 0.0.0
Scope: SL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: research
Public forecast: No

Frozen parameters

{}

NRL — research & validation

Secondary competition and the main historical validation dataset (results and player selections).

M0Baseline Team StrengthProduction-validated

Elo-style team strength rating with fixed home advantage. Frozen specification.

Frozen baseline. Every other model is measured against it.

Validated on NRL: 2025 validation season and 2026 holdout. Applies to NRL only.

Version: 1.0.0
Scope: NRL
Training: 2015-03-01 → 2024-10-06
Validation: NRL 2025 season and 2026 holdout
Registry status: production
Public forecast: Yes

Frozen. Any parameter change requires a new model version.

Frozen parameters

{
  "K": 60,
  "S": 250,
  "homeAdvantage": 80,
  "offseasonRetention": 0.5
}

M2Experience / SelectionRejected

Player experience weighting experiment.

Did not improve on the baseline in validation. Not used.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: retired
Public forecast: No

Rejected — no reliable improvement.

Frozen parameters

{}

M3Player Availability / Selection LossResearch

Availability-loss experiment.

Needs inputs that cannot yet be sourced reliably before kickoff.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: research
Public forecast: No

Data constrained / future research.

Frozen parameters

{}

M4Structural ContinuityRejected

Lineup continuity experiment.

Did not improve on the baseline in validation. Not used.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: retired
Public forecast: No

Rejected.

Frozen parameters

{}

M5Team Strength + Depth StressProduction-validated

M0 probability adjusted by a standardised team-selection depth-stress feature. Requires verified pre-match team selections.

Depth-stress correction on M0. Used only with verified pre-match team lists; otherwise M0 is shown.

Validated on NRL: 2025 validation season and 2026 holdout. Applies to NRL only.

Version: 1.0.0
Scope: NRL
Training: 2015-03-01 → 2024-10-06
Validation: NRL 2025 season and 2026 holdout
Registry status: production
Public forecast: Yes

Production only where verified pre-match selection data exists. Otherwise falls back to M0.

Frozen parameters

{
  "base": "M0",
  "beta": -0.029836312972789596,
  "slots": {
    "C": 2,
    "L": 1,
    "W": 2,
    "2R": 2,
    "FB": 1,
    "FE": 1,
    "FR": 2,
    "HB": 1,
    "HK": 1
  },
  "intercept": 0.011156901874099937,
  "normalizationSd": 6.285439296433833,
  "normalizationMean": -0.5055821371610846
}

M6WorkloadRejected

Short turnaround and travel workload experiment.

Did not improve on the baseline in validation. Not used.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: retired
Public forecast: No

Rejected.

Frozen parameters

{}

M7DisciplineCandidate

Penalty and discipline experiment.

Under evaluation. Not part of the public forecast and never promoted automatically.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: candidate
Public forecast: No

Candidate / research only. Not in the public predictor.

Frozen parameters

{}

M8Preseason Squad StrengthResearch

Preseason squad strength experiment.

Needs inputs that cannot yet be sourced reliably before kickoff.

Version: 0.1.0
Scope: NRL
Training: — → —
Validation: Not recorded
Registry status: research
Public forecast: No

Data constrained.

Frozen parameters

{}